NCAAB January 17th

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NCAAB November: 41-32-1, (56.16%) +5.8 Units
NCAAB December: 31-48-1, (39.24%) -21.8 UnitsĀ 
NCAAB January: 23-23, (50.00%) -2.3 Units

What started as a great January has now hit the skids as I’ve gone 1-10 in my last 11 plays. Just need to get it back on track and close out this month strong. Here’s what I have tonight…

South Florida (+14): Feels like a nice chance to fade Central Florida in a sandwich spot tonight. They are coming off a nice home win against Houston and have a road battle with Memphis waiting for them on deck. Plus it’s the kind of game that if UCF is just going through the motions at all it should be tough to pull away and win by this big of a number. To begin with we are looking at a low possession game probably 65-68 or so, with a total of only 127. UCF is excellent defensively, but I think offensively they could struggle a bit tonight. Both teams turn the ball over a ton, neither team shoots it very well, and overall this just feels like an ugly, ugly game. I’ll take my chances with UCF in the tricky situational spot that they won’t be there enough mentally to pull away here. Feels like a 67-60 type UCF win.

Western Michigan (+7.5): Aside from Eastern Michigan the best two teams in the MAC are pretty clearly Ohio and Akron. As far as EMU goes they are just off a road win at Ohio and now have a road game at Akron waiting for them on Friday. In between is a home tilt with WMU tonight in what gives us a pretty nice sandwich spot. WMU is pretty weak defensively, but they do have a pretty solid offense and tonight they should have an edge on the glass as well. One of their biggest issues is poor 3 point defense but that shouldn’t hurt them much tonight as EMU doesn’t shoot the 3 often or well. I think Broncos hang around throughout and maybe even steal this game outright.

Miami OH (+10): I’ll take a shot against Northern Illinois here as I suspect they’ve already got one eye looking ahead to a big battle this weekend with Ohio. That game on the surface might not seem huge, but to NIU it is, and it will be. Even under ideal circumstances it would be tough to lay double digit points with an offense as bad as NIU’s is. On the year NIU ranks 338th in effective FG%, 349th in 3 point %, and 301st in 2 point %, and on top of that they turn the ball over a lot. This play boils down to simply those two things. A very shaky NIU offense and a look ahead spot in play with Ohio on deck. I’ll challenge them to find a way to win by double digits, as I just simply don’t think they can.

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