11
JAN
2017

NCAAB January 11th

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NCAAB November: 41-32-1, (56.16%) +5.8 Units
NCAAB December: 31-48-1, (39.24%) -21.8 UnitsĀ 
NCAAB January: 17-11, (60.71%) +4.9 Units

Started yesterday with 3 winners and the followed the 3 losers for the 3-3 day. Frustrating when a solid start goes south like that. Back at it today…

Fordham (+14.5): I’ll take a shot with Fordham here in a game where I think Davidson could be looking ahead a bit. VCU comes to town on Saturday and it’s very possible that Davidson already has an eye on that game. Fordham is the 2nd worst team in the A-10 and realistically they aren’t giving opponents sleepless nights. So it is a nice situational spot to get involved with Fordham and it’s a decent matchup spot as well. I’m not going to act like Fordham is going to win this game, they probably won’t, but one thing clearly in their favor is the turnover battle. On the year Davidson is ranked 298th in forcing turnovers, while Fordham believe it or not is ranked 2nd. Yes out of 351 D1 teams, Fordham ranks 2nd in forcing turnovers. On top of that they actually protect the ball pretty well and against a team like Davidson that doesn’t force turnovers to begin with we could have something here. Another area of hope for Fordham comes from 3 point land. They like to try and beat you from 3 point land and that’s where they score over 35% of their points. Luckily for them that’s where you can beat Davidson as they allow opponents to shoot 38.4% from 3, and give up nearly 35% of their opponents points from 3. Davidson’s interior defense is solid but that doesn’t matter to Fordham as all they want to do is chuck 3’s anyways. As I mentioned Davidson is the perfect kind of team to do that against. Between the style of play and the possible look ahead angle I’ve got enough here to back Fordham getting this many points.

Marquette (-5.5): A chance at quick revenge for Marquette here as they get Seton Hall on their home floor just 10 days after losing a 3 point game to them on the road. Despite what the current records say I actually Marquette is the slightly better team. They can shoot the hell out of the ball. They are great from 3, great from the FT line, and overall rank 15th as a team in effective FG%. They don’t turn the ball over much so most possessions end with a high percentage look. In particular Marquette loves to bomb from 3 where they hit at a 40.7% clip, good enough for 8th best in the nation. Seton Hall is an interesting team in that they defend the 3 well, but they allow you to get up your fair share of attempts from out there. In the first meeting Marquette hit 9 of 24 from deep and I’d expect them to do that well or better here at home. One other thing I need to stress here is the FT edge Marquette has. On the year they are 2nd best in the nation at 81.9% from the line, while Seton Hall ranks 340th at 61.1%. You’ve gotta love your chances late with an elite FT shooting team and that’s what you have with Marquette.

Loyola-Chicago (+15.5): Again going to pick on a team in a look ahead spot, this time will do so going against Wichita State. On Saturday the Shockers head to the road to take on Illinois State in what is by far the toughest game remaining on their schedule. Wichita State and Illinois State are clearly the class of the MVC and the battle Saturday will be the best matchup that conference has to offer all season. Before hand however there’s the small detail that Wichita State still has to play Loyola-Chicago. This isn’t 100% only a situational play though, Loyola-Chicago is actually a respectable team. Their offense ranks 5th in the nation in effective FG% and Moser has them running some good stuff. They are a well rounded offense that can beat you inside and from deep. They shoot it well from all over, they have the 18th best turnover rate in the country, and frankly they just have a far better offense than you’d expect. In non conference play this year they beat San Diego State (granted they are down, but still a good team) and lost by only 2 at NC State. I’d be comfortable taking 15.5 points in this matchup even without the Wichita State look ahead angle in play, honestly that aspect of it is just a bonus for me.

Southern Illinois (+5.5): In the Loyola-Chicago write up I mentioned how Saturday Illinois State takes on Wichita State in what is pretty much the MVC game of the year. I also mentioned how it’s very possible the Shockers could be looking ahead. Well all of the same can be said for Illinois State doing the exact same thing. When their schedule comes out you can bet they bold, highlight, and circle the night when Wichita State comes to town. Realistically Southern Illinois shouldn’t be relevant in the MVC race this season, but don’t tell them that. With a 10-7 start overall, 3-1 in conference play, and 3 straight wins this team is working with some confidence right now. While for Wichita State and Illinois State the big battle is on Saturday, for Southern Illinois this is a pretty damn big game right here. They want to show they are a good team and try to show they can hang with the conference big boys. I think the SIU hangs around throughout and has a good chance at pulling off the upset.

Out of time for write ups but here are my other plays tonight….

Saint Louis (+10.5)
Texas A&M (-12)
Air Force (+2)

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