10
JAN
2017

NCAAB January 10th

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NCAAB November: 41-32-1, (56.16%) +5.8 Units
NCAAB December: 31-48-1, (39.24%) -21.8 UnitsĀ 
NCAAB January: 14-8, (63.64%) +5.2 Units

1-1 yesterday and will keep it moving with a much more attractive slate of games here for Tuesday. This is what I’ve got…

Florida State (-1.5): In a way it’s weird to see Duke as a dog to FSU, but I actually think this line is short and that the Noles should be favored by 3.5 or 4. I’m not sure how many have noticed but FSU is 15-1 and now ranked in the top 10. Height wise there may not be a bigger team in the nation than FSU, and wouldn’t you know it tonight Duke is without their best big man. Amile Jefferson won’t be playing tonight and there literally isn’t a worse game on the schedule for him to miss if you’re Duke. FSU is a handful down low and with Jefferson out their edge down there should only grow. The way to beat Duke to begin with is down low as on the year they are allow the 326th lowest percentage of points from 3 point land, and the 3rd highest percentage of points from 2 point land. I hate to beat a dead horse but I can’t overstate how bad this Jefferson injury is in this particular matchup for the Blue Devils. That isn’t to sell short what FSU has on the perimeter. Hamilton has been landing 4 and 5 star recruits for a while now and the fruits of labor are starting to show. Bacon is a stud, Rathan-Mayes is a stud, Mann has turned into a nice player, and 6’10” Freshman Jonathan Isaac is a hot shot recruit as well. I feel like this is a statement game for the Noles and a chance to show people they are for real. I fully expect them to take advantage of it.

West Virginia (-6): Baylor may be the undefeated team and the one that’s ranked #1 in the nation, but I think WVU is the better squad. Huggins has really got it cooking in Morgantown with that pressing defense. On the year WVU turns people over more than anyone in the nation with a 32.8% turnover rate. Almost equally impressive is the fact they are 6th best in turnover rate offensively at 14.6%. So right off the bat just due to their lack of turnovers and the amount they force, they are already getting far more FG attempts than the opponent. Simply put they don’t have many dry possessions and they force a ton of them. Baylor in their own right is loaded and I don’t want to sell them short, but they haven’t seen anything like what they’ll see tonight. WVU turns over everyone, they even forced UVA into a 23% turnover rate in Charlottesville. It’s not a matter of if Baylor will trouble with the press, it’s just how much trouble they’ll have. On top of all that I’ve never really been a Scott Drew guy. I think Huggy is going to coach circles around him tonight and frankly I think this game could get out of hand. It all seems to align perfectly. 15-0 team, freshly ranked #1 in the land, then they hit the road for their toughest test of the year. To me it feels like a 10-15 point WVU win.

UNLV (+10.5): I just can’t pass up going against New Mexico after what they went through on Saturday. They blew a 14 point lead with 1:16 to go and Ken Pom actually registered Nevada’s chances to win at that point at 0.0%. Little did they know that 0.0% chance to win, turned into a New Mexico melt and a Nevada win. A loss like that just can’t be shaken off and brushed aside. I suspect there’s going to a hangover effect tonight for the Lobos as the UNLV comes to town. On paper this line is about right, New Mexico is a better team and at home they should be favored by about 10 or 11. This play is purely situational. If New Mexico proves me wrong and shows up focused, not feeling sorry for themselves, and ready to go…. so be it. I’m going to take that risk. Rebels for me.

San Jose State (+12): San Diego State is an absolute mess right now. You could argue this is a buy low spot or a “take out your frustration” spot for the Aztecs, but I just can’t see it. They are just so beat up right now. Pope remains out, Hemsley is banged up and is 50/50 to play tonight, Shrigley is banged up, Williams is out, etc… It even got to the point in their last game at Boise State that SDSU was running out of bodies. Late in the game Kell went to Fisher and told him he needed a rest. Fisher responded with “I can take a timeout for you, but I can’t take you out right now. There’s just nobody left.” Even under ideal circumstances SDSU is challenged offensively and right now circumstances are nowhere near ideal. I still think they’ll win but the sad reality is they shouldn’t be favored by 12 against much of anyone at the moment. Matchup wise it’s shaky for SDSU here as well. For lack of options down low they’ve become 3 point happy (despite the fact they don’t shoot it very well) and that’s a problem here as San Jose State does a good job taking away the 3 point line. Overall the Spartans are a solid defensive team as they check in at 109th in the nation in defensive efficiency. This should be an ugly, low scoring game where pulling away and winning by double digits is likely too tall of a task for this beat up SDSU squad.

Out of time for write ups but I do have a few more…

Texas Tech (-4.5)
Alabama (+5.5)

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