04
NOV
2016

NFL November 6th

comment : 0

NFL Week 8: 1-3-1, (25.00%) -2.3 Units
NFL Season: 18-16-1, (52.94%) +0.4 Units

A rough time of it last week has me almost back to break even for the season. Need a solid week here to get things back on track. Here we go…

Vikings (-6): The Vikings started the season 5-0 and everyone hopped all over the bandwagon. For 2 straight games the public was all over them to the tune of about 80% of bets in each game, sure enough the dropped those 2 games and now everyone has jumped right back off the bandwagon. This week only 22% of tickets are currently on the Vikings and it seems the fickle public has moved on from this once flavor of the week. There’s just too much over-reaction going on with this team. When they were 5-0 they weren’t as good as everyone thought, and now that they’ve dumped two straight they aren’t as bad as people seem to think. This feels like a nice spot for them to get back on track at home against the Lions. Can’t get too high with the highs or too low with the lows and right now that’s what the media and public are doing. I’ll keep a clear head and trust the Vikes take care of business on Sunday.

Browns (+7): Not surprisingly the public is all over the Cowboys, and all in against the Browns again. These are two things that we’ve seen week after week this year. Everyone on the Cowboys, everyone against the Browns. So sure enough when these teams go head to head you knew how the betting splits would look. Dallas has now won 6 straight and sits at 6-1, the Browns still haven’t won a game yet this year. This one is too easy right? Dallas has to cover right? How could they not? Just bet them and collect your money. You guys know my style by now, if it seems that easy just go the other way. For what feels like the millionth week in a row I’ll be on the Browns as the dog.

49ers (+4): Another one where there is some over-reaction going on. The Saints had a nice win last week against Seattle and now find themselves a 4 point favorite as they head west to take on the 49ers. Now the 49ers suck, I’ll admit that right off the bat. Their QB play is terrible, their team is terrible, and there really isn’t much to feel good about. All that said I’m not sure the Saints should be laying 4 points on the road against anyone. A nice win over the Seahawks however and 81% of the public is ready to lay those points with the road favorite. I’m not one to over-react to one game, and I’m sure as hell not one to lay points with a bad team that’s 2000 miles from home. As bad as the 49ers are I think getting them as the home dog is the play here.

Those 3 are it for this week as I’m going to keep things low volume. I had leans towards the Rams, Colts, and Jaguars but there isn’t enough there for me to play them.

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