NFL Week 10: 3-1, (75.00%) +1.9 Units
NFL Season: 21-20-1, (51.22%) -1.0 Units
Solid week last week going 3-1 to hopefully get me back on track a bit. Season record now right at about even. Need to get back into the black and hopefully do so this week…
Jaguars (+6.5): This feels like a bit of a come back to earth spot for the Lions this week. They now sit at 5-4 and every time you turn around it feels like they are coming back to win the 4th quarter in a game they have no business winning. There’s no denying Matthew Stafford is playing great lately but I’m not sure the Lions deserve to be this big of a favorite against almost anyone quite yet. Sitting in first place now people seem to be buying in though with 71% of bets currently on them. Jacksonville at 2-7 is an easy team to pick on, so it doesn’t surprise me that the public is doing exactly that. I feel they’ll hang around here and make this one more interesting than most expect.
Ravens (+7): Same old story with the Cowboys. Every week they win, every week they cover. This team right now is as hot as you can get. Dak Prescott is playing off the charts, Ezekiel Elliott is playing off the charts, and this team can do no wrong. At some point they have to hit a speed bump though right? A pothole at least? Something? I’m not saying even lose a game like this, but at least play a close game. At this point I’m honestly just betting against them being able to keep up this insanely high level of play. If they happen to win and cover yet again, so be it.
Rams (+1.5): This isn’t an easy play to make and I’ll say right off the bat that I think Jared Goff is going to be pure trash. I think he’s got bust written all over him and he’s one of the few QB’s out there that I consider a downgrade from Case Keenum. All that said, I can’t pass on fading Miami here. The Dolphins have won 4 straight and have now been out in California for the last 2 weeks. Until last week the Dolphins didn’t have a road win all season, and now I’m going to challenge them to win 2 games, 3000 miles from home, in back to back weeks. I’ll admit the fish are playing well, and frankly they are better than I thought, but if a team was ever due to come back to earth a bit it should be Miami here. With their 4 game win streak it’s not surprising that 76% of bettors are currently on them. It doesn’t shock me a bit people aren’t exactly lining up to bet Goff against them. I’ll make the uncomfortable bet though and challenge Miami to keep up their solid play.
49ers (+11): This is solely a percentages play. I don’t have the exact number in front of me but I believe over the last 25-30 years that double digit home dogs are hitting around 60-65% or so. I know the 49ers suck. I know the Pats will be fired up off a loss. I know on paper these teams aren’t even close. All that said, the 49ers are still pros too. Their guys get paychecks, they where uniforms, they play in the NFL too. Getting 11 points with a home team in the NFL is extremely rare and I just can’t pass on it. I know it won’t be pretty, it’s basically a plug your nose and hope for the best kind of bet. Sometimes you’ve just gotta do what you gotta do.