NFL Week 9: 0-3, (0.00%) -3.3 Units
NFL Season: 18-19-1, (48.65%) -2.9 Units
After an 0-3 showing in week 9 I find myself in the red for the first time this NFL season. Need to get back on track here this week.
Broncos (+2.5): I know the Saints are hot right now, they are putting up some nice numbers on offense and in general they are a team moving in the right direction. I also know the Broncos have hit the skids a bit over the last month or so, but for the Saints to now be favored over Denver I feel is a bit much. Say what you will about the Denver offense, but their defense is still very elite. I’m not going to let a 30 point showing by Oakland last week let me think otherwise. To me the Saints have simply went from a horrible team to a mediocre team and I won’t pass on a chance to take Denver plus points against a mediocre team. That simple.
Eagles (PK): The Falcons hype train is gaining speed by the week. People are talking about Matt Ryan for MVP, and life is good in the ATL. Meanwhile after losing 4 of their last 5 nobody seems to care about the Eagles anymore. After their 3-0 start everyone was ready to throw Carson Wentz into the hall of game, now they’ve lost 4 of 5 and they are garbage? Realistically the truth is in the middle. At 3-0 they weren’t as great and at 4-4 they aren’t as bad as everyone now thinks. This is still a pretty solid team and at home this week I feel they are very dangerous. Not surprisingly given the direction these two teams are going 85% of bettors are currently on the Falcons. I’ll be in that 15% going the other way expecting the Eagles to bring Atlanta back down to earth a bit.
Steelers (-2.5): It’s not easy to get in front of this Cowboys freight train right now, but I’m going to do it. I believe Dallas is 7-0-1 ATS this season and I know I’ve been against them in many of those. The Cowboys are basically like the Patriots this season so far. Just bet them blindly regardless of line, opponent, where the game is, what the situation is, etc. Just bet them and win. That easy. This week however I think that ends. We all saw how rusty and frankly horrible Ben Roethlisberger looked last week, but this week in his 2nd game back I think that rust will have been shaken off and he should be back to his normal self. With 3 straight losses and a bye mixed in the Steelers haven’t won a game in about a month and now all of the sudden people seem to have forgotten that in September they were looked at as clearly a top 5 team in the NFL. Right now Pittsburgh is almost back to full health, they are at home, and in desperate need of a bounce back/get back on track game. On the other hand Dallas is long, long overdue to hit a pothole and have a reality check. I think we get both this week. Steelers get it done at home.
Seahawks (+7.5): Things are just getting crazy with the Patriots right now. Every week it’s the same thing. Oddsmakers inflate their lines knowing the public is going to pound them regardless of what the line is. Sure enough 80-85% of bettors play New England, and then sure enough they win and cover. This has been happening week, after week, after week. It’s to the point now with most people it doesn’t matter what the line is in Pats games. If NE was -6.5 they’d take them, -7.5 they’d take them, -9 same thing, -10.5 they’d still take them. It just doesn’t matter. Realistically I think this line should be about 6.5 or 7 but oddsmakers figured hell with it, we’ll make NE backers lay the hook too. I won’t dispute that the Pats are the best team in the NFL, but I’ve got too much respect for Seattle not to take them getting over a TD.