NFL Season: 10-7, +2.3 Units
NFL Week 4: 2-2, -0.2 Units
Keeping it pretty low volume so far this season in the NFL with only 17 plays through 4 weeks. Rolling right along at 58% though, so certainly no complaints with how things have gone. Will look to keep it going here in Week 5.
If you haven’t followed my plays yet this year my style is simple. I’m very contrarian. I go against the teams everyone loves, I’m willing to bet the horrible teams. I’m willing to bet against the great teams. I’m willing to make the uncomfortable play. You have to go against the grain when betting the NFL otherwise you’ll flat out get chewed up and spit out. Simple as that. Hope you enjoy the write ups…
Texans (+7): You could argue the Vikings have been the most impressive team in the NFL so far this season. What comes with that is the media, the public, casual fans, the mailman, the UPS guy, the guys at the bar, the guys at the gym, etc, etc all loving them. Sure enough this week 80% of action is on the Vikings as the hype train is moving at full speed. I’m not saying the Vikings aren’t good, but what I am saying is this line is a few points too high. This happens very often especially when a team puts up an impressive showing on Monday night like the Vikings did. Everyone saw that game, it left a good taste in everyones mouth, and now sure enough the Vikings are media and public darlings. Two of my favorite angles to go against are the Monday night over-reaction angle, and the “this team is so great now” angle. In this case we’ve got both wrapped into one. Factor in the short week for the Vikings facing a physical Texans team and 7 feels like a ton of points to get. I’ll go with the road dog in a game I truly feel isn’t decided until the final few minutes. It’ll stay close throughout.
Browns (+10.5): Speaking of everyone falling in love with a team, here we’ve got the Patriots and the Browns. Tom Brady is back this week and with that comes all the “Brady is going to be so mad! Gronk is ready to go! Bellichick is so pissed after that Bills loss! The Browns are the worst team in the league! The Pats will win by 30!” Again, not surprisingly 88% so far are on the Pats and we’ve got your rare double digit road favorite. Over the last 13 years I believe double digit road favorites have only covered at a 38% clip. In short, it’s just not easy to win on the road in the NFL, let alone to do it by double digits. To be totally frank about it this a bet most people aren’t brave enough to make. It’s too uncomfortable to put your hard earned money on arguably the worst team in the league, against arguably the best team in the league. Don’t be afraid to do it guys, this line is inflated and more often than not the home dog will find a way to keep it close enough to sneak within the spread. Close your eyes and plug your nose if you need to, but the Browns are the right play here.
Jets (+7): Following the same line of thought as the first two plays, I’ll be on the Jets here. The Steelers are fresh off a blowout win on Sunday night football against the Chiefs, and the 1-3 Jets are off back to back losses where they’ve just looked awful. That makes the Steelers the no brainer play right? Well as of now 80% thinks so, as bets are pouring in on Pittsburgh. Again, we’ve got over-reaction going and as a result this line is a little higher than it should be. While I do think the Steelers are a very good team, I don’t think the Jets are as bad as they’ve shown the last few weeks. I look for them to get things back on track, not necessarily to win the game, but they should hang around throughout.
Lions (+3): If you know anything about how I cap the NFL it should have been considered automatic I’d be playing the Lions here. You’ve got media darling Carson Wentz and the 3-0 Eagles against a Lions team that is 1-3 and most recently lost the horrid Bears. On the surface this is one of those “How the hell are the Eagles only favored by 3” type of games. So again not surprisingly 82% of bettors are on the Eagles so far. It’s awfully easy to take the 3-0 team with the wonder kid at QB and fade the 1-3 team that’s already lost games to the likes of the Titans and Bears. It’s really just that easy eh? Go pick the low hanging fruit and the 3-0 team will win and cover against the 1-3 team eh? Oddsmakers just into giving out free money? I sure don’t think so. To me this is a perfect spot for two things to happen. One, for the Eagles to come back to earth a bit and get beaten on the road. Two, for the Lions to turn their season around a bit and beat a rookie QB on their home field. Really doesn’t seem far fetched in the least from my eyes. Lions win this game and what to many will be a big upset, to me will just be a normal result.