NFL Week 7: 2-1, (66.67%) +0.9 Units
NFL Season: 17-13, (56.67%) +2.7 Units
Only 3 plays last week and went a solid 2-1. Another week and a bit more added to the bankroll. Hopefully more of the same this week.
Bills (+6.5): Another week and another inflated Patriots line. The Pats are now 6-1 on the season and 6-1 ATS. Week after week oddsmakers inflate these Patriots line, yet the public still pounds them to the tune of about 85% of bettors taking then, and then they cover anyways. Apparently it’s just that easy. Bet on Bellichick and Brady every Sunday and win. Stubbornly I’ll continue to go against them, because I refuse to believe it’s just that easy. It can’t be, can it? I feel like a 4th grader could just come in and take NE every week. Sure enough again here 88% of bettors are on the Patriots this week. I think this line should be about 4 or 4.5, and as long as these Patriots line stay inflated I’ll keep going against them. I’ll just trust that at some point this has gotta turn.
Buccaneers (-1): The Raiders now sit at 5-2 and everyone seems to be drinking the Kool-Aid. This week the Raiders try to make it two in a row in the state of Florida by taking on the steadily improving Bucs. Winning road games in the NFL is tough, let alone winning back to back road games 3000 miles from home. I really like what Jameis Winston is becoming with the Bucs and Jacquizz Rodgers has looked great in the backfield. I know the Raiders are the flavor of the week right now with 77% of bettors on them so far, but I expect Tampa Bay to pull out a win in this one.
Browns (+3): I think this is finally the week, I think we finally get a Cleveland Browns win on Sunday. I know it’s easy to see a team, frankly any team, only laying 3 points against an 0-7 Browns team and want to jump all over it. Even if that team is the New York Jets. Ryan Fitzpatrick is now back at the helm after the injury to Geno Smith, the Jets pulled off a nice win over the Ravens last week, and now all of the sudden 71% of bettors are taking them this week. I still think the Jets are trash, and in fairness I had them last week. The Browns know this will be one of their best chances for a W this year, and I think they find a way to get it done.
Eagles (+4): The Cowboys are fresh off a bye and sitting at 5-1 atop the NFC East. Right now many are saying that they could be the best team in the NFC and that after NE they might even be the best team in the NFL. I think over the bye week they might have put Dak Prescott in the Hall of Fame too. Right now everyone is all over the Cowboys. I certainly won’t deny they’ve been playing well, but I also think they’ve been playing a bit over their heads too. Sure enough now in a primetime spot on Sunday night the public is lining up to take Americas Team. As of now 66% of bettors are on the Boys to knock off their division rivals and cover the 4. Per usual I’ll be on the contrarian side going against the team most people are in love with. These division battles are always hard fought and in a game like this getting over a FG is big. I’ll take Philly in a game that I think comes down to the final minutes.
Redskins (+2.5): Here we’ve got the dreaded -2.5 line. The ole “all you’ve gotta do is win by a FG to cover” line. Lines like this in games like this just feel slimy to me. The Bengals are only 3-4 but most people still feel like this is a good team that’ll flirt with a playoff spot before all is said and done. On the flip side the Redskins are 4-3 but most people think they are a fluke and that the bottom will fall out at anytime now. The general consensus is Bengals on the way up, Redskins on the way down. Factor in the game being in Cincy and laying that 2.5 almost feels as creepy as an old man with a piece of candy trying to lure a little kid into a van. “Come over here, just lay the 2.5 points, you know the Redskins suck. All Cincy has to do is win by a FG. Just look how easy this one is.” Sure enough 72% of bettors are eating it up and taking the Bengals. I’m not biting, Redskins for me.
**Update I’ve been told (and you guys are right) that the Skins/Bengals game is in London. My fault, honestly didn’t even know that. I still like the Redskins though**