NFL October 23rd

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NFL Week 6: 3-2, (60.00%) +0.8 Units
NFL Season: 14-12, (53.85%) +0.8 UnitsĀ 

A decent Week 6 going 3-2 has me back slightly in the black as we move into Week 7. Per usual I’ll be on what I feel to be the most contrarian plays on the board. If you haven’t followed my NFL plays this year it’s really this simple… if you watch ESPN, NFL Network, etc etc, all the teams they are pumping up I usually like to bet against. All the teams they are saying are horrible, I usually like to bet on. Just take the pulse of the public, the media, and go the other way. Here we go with Week 7…

Eagles (+2.5): The Vikings are the last remaining undefeated team in the NFL at 5-0, they are fresh off a bye and facing an Eagles team that has lost 2 in a row. Now oddsmakers hang that -2.5 line out there. The classic “all they have to do is win by a FG to cover” number. On the surface it all just seems so easy doesn’t it? Undefeated team, fresh off bye, facing team that’s lost 2 straight, only gotta win by 3, etc etc. Given all those factors it’s not the least bit surprising that as of my typing this that 84% of bettors are on the Vikings. Spots like this are right up my alley, to put it frankly they just don’t come much better. I’ll happily join that 16% on the Eagles and hope to be on the winning side when that other 84% is scratching their heads wondering how the hell the Vikings lost.

Jets (PK): Right now most would tell you the Jets are a bottom 3 team in the NFL. Most would tell you Ryan Fitzpatrick is playing QB about as poorly as anyone in the league. The most recent thing we all saw was a Monday night game where they were humiliated by Arizona. With all that going on, again it comes as no surprise that 77% of bettors are on Baltimore this week. That’s just how the NFL works. All the media is trashing the hell out of the Jets and Fitzpatrick (and I’m not saying they are wrong) but when that happens the public always going running to bet the other side. As you all know by now that isn’t how I operate. I’ll sit there in the trenches and take the team everyone thinks is pure trash. Somehow I think the Jets find a way to pull out a W here.

**Update: A few minutes after me posting this Jets play Geno Smith was announced the starter. Doesn’t change anything for me. Still on the Jets**

Steelers (+7): I’m still digging to find out if they are actually going to play this game. With Ben Roethlisberger going down and now Landry Jones now starting at QB many have been acting like the Steelers should just forfeit. Why even bother to show up? Tom Brady is the best QB in the league, the Patriots are the best team in the league, and with Big Ben hurt Pittsburgh has no chance. Despite all that I still think the Steelers will show up at the stadium and they’ll actually be a football game on Sunday. Again, with all that going on and the media/public acting like the results of this game are a forgone conclusion 88% of bettors have taken NE so far. Is it really that easy? Brady is great, Pats are great, Big Ben is hurt, bet NE and win? I feel if it were that easy we’d all just be sitting on a beach downing drinks all day, right? Here comes captain contrarian again to take the team that nobody wants anything to do with this week. Steelers plus the TD for me.

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