NFL October 16th

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NFL Week 6: 1-0, (100.00%) +1 Unit
NFL Season: 12-10, (54.55%) +1 Unit

Week 6 got off to a good start on Thursday night with the Chargers taking care of business against Denver to put me back in the black for the season. Hopefully can carry that momentum into Sunday where I’ll have 4 more plays.

Bengals (+8.5): It’s certainly not easy to jump in front of this Patriots freight train right now, but I’m going to do it again. Right now with Brady back they seem to clicking on all cylinders and you could easily argue they are the best team in the NFL. I can’t help but feel this line is inflated due to all of that attention and praise though. The Bengals are no slouches in their own right and to be able to catch 8.5 points with them is something I won’t pass on. Not surprisingly everyone is pounding the Patriots, and as of Friday morning 78% of bettors are on that side. Until this team cools down a bit they’ll be a very public and very square play week after week, which for my purposes makes them the perfect team to go against. I think the Bengals hang around and keep this thing within a score.

Dolphins (+7.5): Similar story here with the Dolphins and Steelers. Most would tell you Pittsburgh is a top 5 team in the league, while Miami is a bottom 5 team in the league. I doubt you’d get much objection on either of those points from anyone. Here you’ve got a classic buy low, sell high spot though. The Steelers keep rolling right along, and aside from one clunker in Philly they’ve looked great all year. The Dolphins on the other hand have looked horrid and are off a 13 point home loss to lowly Tennessee. Seems pretty damn close to rock bottom for the Fish right now. So again, not surprisingly 80% of bettors are on the Steelers. It’s tough to win on the road in this league, even against the bad teams. It’s even tougher to cover inflated numbers while on the road. At 6.5 or 7 I don’t think I’d get involved but with this thing sitting over a TD it’s good enough for me to take the Dolphins.

Seahawks (-6): Time for a little reality check for the Falcons this week. The Falcons now sit at 4-1 and are coming off a road win against Denver, and we can see the hype machine starting. Matt Ryan this, Julio Jones that, etc etc. You guys know by now as soon as the media and public starts falling in love with the new flavor of the week team, that’s when I come in and bet against them. Well, here we go this week as the Falcons make the long trip to Seattle. I think the combination of a Falcons let down, a reality check, the long travel, and a Seattle team that’s usually pure hell to deal with at home is going to do in Atlanta. I look for a double digit Seahawks win here.

Browns (+7): The Browns are probably the worst team in the NFL right now. There really isn’t much arguing that, it’s a horrid football team. That said, I’m not sure the Titans should be laying 7 points against anyone, anywhere. The Titans are pretty damn bad themselves, and now that they beat a horrible Miami team they are laying a full TD? Doesn’t quite make sense to me. I think this line should be in the 4 to 4.5 range, so at a TD I’m going to hop in. It isn’t easy to keep backing the worst team in the league, but here I feel this inflated number truly justifies a play on the road dog.

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