NCAAF Week 7: 2-4, (33.33%) -2.4 Units
NCAAF Season: 32-24-1, (57.14%) +5.6 Units
Had a rough day on Saturday and will look to get things back on track here this week. Overall however sitting at 57% through 57 plays is not something you’ll see me complain about. Here we go with Week 8…
Louisville (-19): Here we’ve got a Louisville team off a flat performance against Duke, and an NC State off a near major upset at Clemson. I think both of those results will factor in heavily into what kind of teams show up on Saturday. On the Louisville side I expect a bounce back effort with more focus and attention to detail after such a go through the motions type of effort against Duke. On the flip side this is the kind of game I think will be very tough for NC State to get up for. After a near loss like that against Clemson it’s tough to get back up off the mat. When you get that close to an upset that big (missed short FG at end of regulation that would have won the game) it hits you like a shot to the groin. It’s easy to say “get back on the horse and shake it off” but actually doing so is much tougher. In short I think it’s a bounce back game for Ville and a bit of a feel sorry for yourself spot for NC State. This one could get really ugly.
Kansas (+24): I’ll start by saying Kansas is very bad. Very, very, bad. There’s just no denying that, this is an absolutely horrible football team. This play is in no way being made because I think Kansas is good. Now that we have that out of the way I’ll get into what the angle is. Simply enough I’m hoping/expecting Oklahoma State to be looking ahead to a battle with undefeated West Virginia next week. Kansas being as bad as they are could actually work in their favor this week. Oklahoma State could roll into this game knowing they are the clearly superior team and just sleepwalk through for 60 minutes. I don’t really see any chance of Kansas winning this game straight up, but if Ok State doesn’t take the game seriously (and I really think they won’t) then the Jayhawks should be able to do enough to stay within this number.
Boston College (-4.5): Textbook letdown spot here for Syracuse. Coming off a big 31-17 win over top 20 Virginia Tech had the Orange all kinds of fired up last week. I saw some video from inside the locker room after the win and those kids were pumped up like they just won the Super Bowl. As soon as I saw that I knew I’d be on BC this week. Syracuse isn’t a team that’s had much success in recent years, so to expect them to keep focused and duplicate an effort like that this week is a stretch. I’m of the opinion that they’ll still be on such a high this week that they won’t be as ready as they need to be to deal with a physical team like Boston College. I’m not knocking Cuse too much though, I played them last week in that Va Tech upset and overall this is a team heading in the right direction. In the short term though this isn’t a good spot for them. Plus on the Boston College side we have a team that’s off a bye that came after a 56-10 loss to Clemson. So they’ve had 2 weeks to prepare with that bad taste from the Clemson game in their mouth. You’ve got one team itching to get back on the field and play well, and another that’s ripe for a letdown. There’s no way I’m staying off Boston College here.
Purdue (+24): Another chance to go against a team in a look ahead spot here with Purdue. After this week Nebraska’s next two games are at Wisconsin and then at Ohio State. I know the cliche is always “one game at a time” but I’m just not buying that some of Nebraska’s attention isn’t already on those two games. This is your classic Team A knows they are far better than Team B, so they don’t take the game as seriously as they should, and as a result Team B hangs around enough to keep it within the spread. It’s really as simple as that. I’m banking on the sleepwalk angle with Nebraska with those massive games on deck, and for Purdue to do enough to cover. A sleepy, sloppy, 14 point win or so for Nebraska sounds about right.
TCU (+6.5): Despite their 5-0 record and now #12 ranking I’m still just not totally sold on this West Virginia team. Before the season started I had TCU as a 6 point favorite in this game, so to now see WVU laying 6.5 gives us a 12.5 point difference. Clearly WVU is better than I or anyone else thought they’d be, and TCU isn’t as good as I thought. That said, I still think 6 is too many points here. TCU hasn’t played up to the level of talent on their roster yet this season, but that talent is still there and this is a very dangerous team. The Horned Frogs are looking for a chance to show people that they aren’t just a bunch of underachieving kids, and I think they do that this week. This is a hungry team against a WVU squad that I can’t help but think is due for a reality check.
Old Dominion (+13.5): I’m going to fade Western Kentucky here after they come off an emotional hard fought 44-43 double OT win at Middle Tennessee State last week. That was a huge game as far as Conference USA goes and I can’t help but think they’ll be a letdown in play for WKU. It isn’t 100% a situational play though, Old Dominion is actually a respectable squad this year. They’ve won 3 straight and are playing some solid football right now. They sit at 2-0 and in first place in C-USA and they’ll be eager to show that they can hang with the Hilltoppers. I still expect WKU to win this game, as there’s no denying they are the more talented team. ODU however I think can keep it within 7 or so.