12
OCT
2016

College Football October 15

comment : 2

NCAAF Week 6: 7-3, (70.00%) +3.7 Units
NCAAF Season: 30-20-1, (60.00%) +8.0 Units

After a solid week 6 I’ve now hit the 60% mark for the season through 51 plays and things continue to roll along nicely. It’s a smaller card this week with as for the most part I’m just not crazy about what’s out there. Instead of force, I’ll just lay low with my smallest card of the season.

Texas Tech (+1): West Virginia is off to a nice 4-0 start, but I think this Saturday reality sets in a bit. Their schedule has been pretty weak and a trip to Texas Tech seems to be the toughest game on that schedule to date. This will probably be your typical BIG 12 shootout and I just don’t think WVU has the horses offensively to keep with the Red Raiders on the road. This in a way is a must win game for Texas Tech as starting next week their schedule becomes absolutely brutal. They could easily go 1-5 or 0-6 in those last 6 games, so to defend home field in what oddsmakers think is basically a coin flip game is a must. I’ll admit I’m not huge on this Texas Tech in general, but I do like their chances to pull out a win this week. Should be your typical 45-40 type of game.

Michigan State (-4.5): It would be easy to give up on Sparty as they now sit at 2-3 after 3 straight losses, I won’t do it quite yet though. After that road win over Notre Dame last month it seemed (at least on paper) that Michigan State would be 7-0 going into their game with Michigan in a few weeks. Instead they haven’t won since and find themselves at a crossroads right now. Lesser teams would fold up and quit right now, but I don’t there’s any chance that happens with Sparty and Mark D’Antonio. This feels like a right the ship, and take out your frustration kind of game. To see Michigan State only -4.5 gives us a nice discount on where I thought this line would be before that losing streak. Often times I talk about buying low, and getting Sparty at under a TD favorite against a pretty shaky NW team is doing exactly that. I’ll take my chances D’Antonio and company gets things back in order and take of business here.

Syracuse (+19.5): Textbook sandwich spot for Virginia Tech here off a nice road win over North Carolina, and with a road game against Miami on deck. In between you get a game with a clearly inferior Syracuse squad. In short, sandwich spots don’t come much better than this. Good team, bad team, then good team again. It’s games like this a capper like me just doesn’t pass up on. Syracuse is the perfect kind of team to hang around and stay within this big number. They play at warp speed on offense and if Va Tech comes out flat and lethargic then the Orange can do enough to make this game somewhat interesting. It’s tough for College kids to be fired up 3 straight weeks. Va Tech was last week, you know they will be next week, so I’ll bank on a bit of a go through the motions effort here on Saturday. They won’t lose, but they likely won’t blow the game open either.

Arkansas State (-5): South Alabama is a weird team. They’ve got a road win over an SEC school, they’ve got a 42-24 win over a team that at the time was ranked in the top 20, yet they also have a 1 point win over Nicholls and a couple of losses on their resume too. In short despite those outcomes against Miss State and SDSU I’m just not buying on them. On the flip side Arkansas State is an intriguing team that just might be starting to find it. Lets not forget the preseason O/U on wins for this squad was 8 this season. This isn’t your normal 1-4 team, there is some talent on the roster. Last week Arkansas State found that first win despite losing the turnover battle 0-5. It’s damn near impossible to win a football game when you are -5 in the turnover battle, yet Arky State did it. In a strange way that makes the win even more impressive. I think they build off that momentum and start to string together some wins now. I look for them to be far better here out than they were to start the season. As I mentioned with South Alabama, I’m still not buying in. I think they are a bit further exposed here.

Houston (-21.5): I really feel for Tulsa this week. The Golden Hurricane will have to deal with Houston who is coming off that loss at Navy last week. The Cougars were banging on the door of a BCS bowl, hearing whispers of a national title, Greg Ward Jr has hearing Heisman talk, etc etc. Now it’s all gone and someone has to pay. That someone is going to be Tulsa. This is your absolute textbook take out your frustration and just beat the hell out of your opponent game. The Cougars this week probably went through a few days of self pity, and now that’s turned to overall anger and rage. This is an offense that’s as explosive as it gets, and in a game like this I see no reason for them to let off the gas. I think they get up early and just pile it on as much as they can. To see them flirt with 60 points wouldn’t surprise me a bit. It’s really as simple as that, Houston opens up the flood gates here and really goes to work.

Southern Miss (+25.5): This one is also pretty simple, I don’t think LSU has enough fire power to cover a number this big. Southern Miss is actually a pretty solid team. They are probably the best team in C-USA and they should win 8 or 9 games this season. They’ve got a nice offense that can move the ball, and I think they can do enough to stay within 25 here. LSU is a nice team, but not one that I feel is built for to put up huge point totals, which is what they’ll need to do to cover Saturday. The offense just doesn’t have a lot of big play potential. Yes Leonard Fournette might be the best RB in the nation, but aside from him there isn’t much on this offense that scares you. Last I checked Fournette was questionable for this game. If he plays I don’t doubt that he’ll go for 175 yards or so, but grinding it out on the ground and chewing up clock isn’t normally what leads to covering numbers this big. I’m comfortable with 25.5 points in my back pocket even if Lenny does play. If he doesn’t it’s just gravy. Southern Miss I feel is going to move the ball enough to score 17 to 21 points or so. In which case LSU would need mid to low 40’s in order to cover, and I just don’t think they have that in them.

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  1. Jeff Reply

    Hey David,

    Do you use any sort of statistical analysis or algorithm when narrowing down your universe of games or is it purely based on feel? I understand you have power rankings for each team as well as projections, so do you simply use that to handicap your games and then apply situational factors after the fact?

    Thanks!

  2. Dave Reply

    Nor saying you’re wrong with VT whatsoever, & I am not a homer either. About 35-40 yrs. of wathcing them & right now, this yr., this team is different, focus is different with the new coaching staff. Again, I am not saying you’re wrong, but they are playing different than the last few years. I am the glass half-empty guy so wheels could fall off in the dome, & it wouldn’t surprise me a bit. VT has had their issues in that God forsaken dome. Anyway, just my 2-cents, long time follower, & I bow down to your capping knowledge, & # crunching.

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