NFL September 25th

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NFL Season: 5-3, +1.7 Units
NFL Week 2: 3-1, +1.9 UnitsĀ 

If not for a brutal beat with the Colts last Sunday I’d have swept the board at 4-0. Feeling pretty good about my start to the NFL season, and I like what I’ve got this week too. Here we go…

Bills (+4): By now you guys know I love buy low spots, and this week with Buffalo I feel is about as buy low as you’ll find. The Bills are off to an 0-2 start and the Ryan brothers are already having fans calling for their heads. A close loss at Baltimore in Week 1 certainly isn’t the end of the world, but giving up 37 points and 493 yards to the Jets is a real problem. On the flip side the Cardinals are coming off a 40-7 blowout of the Bucs. On paper the Cardinals are clearly the better team here, but I like Buffalo in the back to the wall situation. Not surprisingly the Cardinals look to be one of the more popular bets of the week and last I checked 84% are backing them. Taking an 0-2 team off a bad loss when for the most part people don’t want any part of them is right up my alley, these are the kind of spots I love. I’ll take my chances with the Bills at +4 at home in the early season must win game.

Colts (-2.5): I don’t know if this play is as contrarian as I normally go in the NFL, but I do think there’s some serious over-reaction going on with the line here. The Chargers are off a big 38-14 win over Jacksonville and the Colts are off to an 0-2 start. Now all of the sudden the Colts are less than a FG favorite at home? What we need to remember here is the Colts had the lead over the Lions in week 1 with a minute left, and then in Denver were only down 23-20 with about a minute left. Yes they are 0-2, but they were right there in both games. I still consider the Chargers are bottom 10 team in the NFL, and for the Colts to only be laying 2.5 at home seems short to me. Personally I’d have made this line 4.5 or 5, so I’ll happily get in there on the Colts this week. On top of all that the Chargers will now also be without Danny Woodhead. That’s the Chargers two biggest offensive weapons (Allen and Woodhead) that are now both on the shelf. Frankly I just don’t think they have the firepower to hang with Luck and company in Indy. Colts for me.

Jaguars (+1.5): Feels like a nice buy low spot for 0-2 Jags against the 2-0 Ravens. We’ll start on the Ravens side of things. They’ve got a 13-7 win over Buffalo and a 25-20 win over the Browns under their belt so far this season. Those are clearly two of the worst teams in football right now, so while 2-0 lets not act like the Ravens have proven anything yet. For the Jags lets not forget that in Week 1 they nearly had Green Bay beat. In the final minutes the Jags were marching down the field for a game winning TD, before ultimately falling short and losing a close battle. In Week 2 they were blown out of the water by the Chargers, but I’ll chalk that one up to a 3000 mile road trip, and the game getting ugly early. When games go south like that so quickly it’s easy just to pack it in and call it a day, and I think that’s what the Jags did. Despite what the records say I could argue the Jaguars are a better overall team than the Ravens, so for them to be a small home dog is too good for me to pass on. I’m fully expecting the Jags first win of the year, and the Ravens first loss.

Redskins (+4.5): Same deal here with a buy low spot on Washington. The Skins come into this one 0-2. Through two weeks things couldn’t look much worse for the Skins. They are allowing 32.5 points per game, Kirk Cousins has 1 TD and 3 INTS, they are only averaging about 60 yards a game rushing, and frankly it’s been very ugly all around. On the other end you have the Giants who are sitting at 2-0 and feeling pretty good. They’ve only allowed 16 points per game, Eli Manning has 3 TD’s and only 1 INT, and with WR Sterling Shepard emerging they have a nice trio there with him, Beckham, and Cruz. On the surface this seems like a no brainer to lay the 4.5 with the Giants at home right? Nope. Not for captain contrarian. I’m expecting a max effort, max focus kind of showing from the desperate Redskins on Sunday. Give me the struggling QB, with no rushing attack and a bad defense. I’ll happily go to battle as the minority in this one.

Bears (+7.5): Last one here and you guys get the idea by now. We’re buying low across the board, and it doesn’t get much lower than the Chicago Bears right now. The Bears are sitting at 0-2 and most recently suffered a blowout loss at home on Monday night that we all saw against the Eagles. Right now most would tell you the Bears are one of the bottom 3 or 4 teams in the league. Like I said the 0-2 start is bad, but when the most recent loss was a home beatdown on Monday Night, you know they’ll be some over-reaction in the line the following week. I’ll be the first to admit the Bears are awful, but to be 7.5 point dog to the Cowboys? I honestly don’t think the drop off from Cutler to Hoyer is much at all, and I don’t buy Dak Prescott as a QB that should be laying over a TD quite yet. Dak doesn’t have a TD pass yet this year, and on the ground Ezekiel Elliott is only averaging 3.3 yards per carry. As horrid as the Bears are 7.5 just feels a couple of points high to me. I’ll roll with theĀ road dog.

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