10
AUG
2016

MLB August 10th

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Padres/Pirates Ov 9 (-115): You aren’t going to keep me away from the over when Edwin Jackson and Ryan Vogelsong are toeing the rubber. Somehow a major league team is letting Edwin Jackson pitch in 2016, and to no surprise the results have been awful. On the year Jackson has gone 36 IP with a 5.00 K/9 and a 4.00 BB/9 rate, both of which are absolutely horrid. To make matters worse is a 39.8% ground ball rate which is also horrid. When the dust settles you are left with a 5.00 ERA and 5.56 xFIP which are you guessed it, horrid. Edwin Jackson is flat out a bottom 5 SP in all of baseball right now, the guy is just terrible. I see no reason he doesn’t get banged around tonight. Now 39 year old Ryan Vogelsong isn’t quite as bad as Jackson, but he’s pretty awful in his own right. Don’t let that 3.25 ERA in his 27.2 IP this year fool you. His K rate is low, his BB rate is right and his strand rate of 79.8% is unsustainable. Right now Vogelsong carries a 4.34 xFIP and I expect that number and his ERA to both rise. Vogelsong was garbage in 2015 and despite what a spiffy ERA in 27 IP shows in 2016 I’m not the least bit fooled, this guy still sucks. Expect there to be plenty of runs put up in this one.

Rays (+177) & Rays/Blue Jays Ov 9 (-120): JA Happ just continues to keep pulling rabbits out of his hat, but getting +177 against him I’m going to challenge him to do it again tonight. On the surface with Happ you see a 15-3 record with a 3.09 ERA which would have him as a Cy Young candidate. A deeper look however reveals how crazy it is that he’s pulling this off. His K and BB rates are both pretty mediocre, his ground ball rate of 41.8% is below average and his HR/FB rate is right around league average. So what the hell is going on you ask? For one Happ has a .269 BABIP which is about 30 points better than league average not to mention 20 points better than his career total. On top of that is an 80.7% strand rate which again is well above league average, and nearly 7% better than Happ’s career rate. Personally I’m of the belief that Happ has just lucked his way into those numbers this year rather than being a 33 year old journeyman who has just all of the sudden found it and become a stud. Opposing him is Rays youngster Blake Snell who like Happ has had some nice luck on his side this year. The luck with Snell has come with a 3.8% HR/FB rate which in no way can last and will surely rise. His BB rate of 4.42 BB/9 is also far too high, but the upside with Snell is there. He has swing and miss stuff and a very live arm. His 9.16 K/9 is impressive and at +177 I’ll take my chances with him against the begging for regression Happ. I’ll also be playing the over here for most of the same reasons I mentioned behind the Rays play.

Astros (-131): Dallas Keuchel has taken a lot of shit this year, but at the end of the day he currently stands with the 18th best xFIP in baseball and the 2nd best ground ball rate in baseball. No he isn’t what he was in 2015, or even 2014 for that matter, but this still a well above average big league pitcher and to think otherwise is honestly just ignorant. It’s mostly been bad luck with HR/FB rate and strand percentage that has doomed Keuchel this year. Lately he’s started to get things back on track and I fully expect that to continue tonight. Ervin Santana on the other hand is still every bit as mediocre as he’s been for most of the last decade. His K rate is low, his ground ball rate is low, and despite a decent ERA his xFIP of 4.29 shows what he really is, just another guy. I know the Astros have been playing poorly the last few weeks but to get Keuchel at only -131 against a guy like Ervin is something I can’t pass on.

Tigers (-102): I think we’ve got the wrong team favored here, as I’m just not buying on Felix Hernandez at all right now. I mentioned before Hernandez last start how this is by the far the worst he’s been in his career. His K rate has never been lower, his BB rate has never been higher, and with a 4.32 xFIP the truth is he’s a below average big league pitcher right now. Justin Verlander on the other end is letting age slow him down. His overall season numbers are solid, but it’s been since May 8th that Verlander has really gotten it going. Since that time he’s gone 118.2 IP with a 9.94 K/9, a 2.12 BB/9, a 2.65 ERA and a 3.58 xFIP. Yes he’s had a bit of BABIP luck, but even with some regression due there I’ll take my chances with a guy putting up the kind of high K, low BB totals that Verlander is doing. As they stand now Verlander IMO is clearly the better pitcher than Hernandez and at only -102 it’s plenty cheap enough for me to get involved.

Rockies (+174) & Rockies/Rangers Ov 10.5 (-115): Martin Perez should never be -184. I don’t care who the opponent is or where the game is played. A pitcher like him getting a line like this is laughable. As I’ve done many times this year I’ll quickly run through some of the awful numbers Perez has put up this year. His 4.88 xFIP is 8th worst in baseball, his 4.33 K/9 rate is 2nd worst in baseball, his 3.75 BB/9 rate is 13th worst in baseball. He’s a terrible pitcher, it’s just as simple as that. His opponent Jorge De La Rosa is also horrible and I won’t even try to tell you otherwise. With a 4.85 xFIP though he’s right around Perez level. While De La Rosa has a bit better K rate than Perez his BB/9 at 4.15 is actually worse. This game should be a video game like slugfest. Two horrible SP’s that both issue a ton of free passes doing battle in a hitters park. It’s not so much that I think De La Rosa is better than Perez but at +174 in a game I expect to be a back and forth softball type affair I’d be foolish not to take the hefty dog. Something like 8-6 Rockies would work out just perfectly.

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