1st 5 Innings Orioles/Dodgers Un 4 (-115): Don’t look know but Bud Norris is all of the sudden pitching like a respectable big league starter. In his last 38.2 IP Norris has a 1.63 ERA, a 3.09 xFIP, a 9.08 K/9 and a 2.33 BB/9. Bud has always been able to throw hard, and on the surface actually has always had pretty good stuff. He’s teased us with nice stretches here and there throughout his career and right now he’s throwing as well as he has in quite some time. I think he continues his resurgence tonight. Orioles starter Kevin Gausman has been impressive too. On the year his xFIP is respectable at 3.82, but what I really like about Gausman is the high K rate of 8.38 K/9 and the low BB rate of 1.98 BB/9. Gausman throws in the mid to high 90’s and clearly has swing and miss stuff. Don’t let his 1-6 record fool you, this guy has a very bright future. I think both of these right handers throw well tonight.
Padres/D-Backs Ov 9.5 (-105): I’m fully expecting a shootout in the desert tonight between these two teams. I haven’t been a fan of Colin Rea at any point this season and that sure isn’t going to change now. His 4.62 xFIP is very high, his K rate is very mediocre, and his BB rate is very high. His stuff is pretty much mediocre at best and frankly he’s just a below average big league pitcher. Against a solid offense like Arizona in a hitter friendly park he should get beat up pretty badly here. Same deal with Shelby Miller, he’s been about as bad as any pitcher in baseball so far this season. His xFIP of 5.23 is one of the worst in the league, his K rate is very low, his BB rate is one of the worst in the league, on and on. In a nutshell Miller is horrid right now. The flood gates could really open up in this game. I expect it to fly over easily.
ML Parlay Mets & Giants (+115): I’m looking for both of these teams to bounce back from losses last night and get back on track today. On paper these plays are pretty self explanatory and don’t require a ton of analysis to tell you why each team is a -215 favorite. As far as the Mets/Marlins go, Justin Nicolino is probably in the bottom 5% of SP’s in the league, he’s flat out horrid. Jake deGrom on the other hand just keeps plugging along as one of the better pitchers in the NL. Out in the bay we get Jorge De La Rosa squaring off with Johnny Cueto. You don’t need a ton of stats to tell you that’s a pitching matchup that more than heavily favors the Giants. This parlay is pretty basic but I think it gets there.
Mariners/Astros Ov 8.5 (-115): A couple of low K guys square off here in what shapes up as a nice spot to take the over. Wade LeBlanc on the surface has had two nice starts for the Mariners putting up a 1.50 ERA in 12 Innings of work. A deeper look however reveals a 4.15 xFIP, a .156 BABIP, a 6 K/9, and a 39% ground ball rate. In other words don’t let those two starts fool you, LeBlanc isn’t very good. What you’ve got with him is a soft throwing lefty that’s bounced between AAA and the big leagues for the last 6 years. His stuff is well below average and for that reason his career has been about a 50/50 split between AAA and MLB since 2010. Mike Fiers on other hand is all of the sudden a guy who can’t miss bats. After posting impressive K rates for four straight seasons in 2012-2015, he now has a K rate of 6.02 K/9 here in 2016. As a result his ERA and xFIP have blown up a bit. He’s never been a ground ball pitcher, and now without getting K’s he’s finding life on the mound a bit more difficult. The Mariners hit right handers very well and tonight I think they fare well with Fiers. This one should sail over the 8.5 and likely end up around 11 or 12.
One more that I don’t have time to get in a write up for as the game starts in about 10 minutes…
1st 5: Tigers/Indians Un 4.5 (-105)