MLB July 2nd

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Giants/D-Backs Ov 8.5 (-115): This feels like a pretty nice spot for an over with two low K pitchers squaring off in one of the hitter friendliest parks in the league. Jeff Samardzija after being a high K guy early in his career is now working on his second straight season with a K/9 rate under 7. Not surprisingly with those low K’s his xFIP has been on the rise. This year that xFIP sits at 4.05 and a tough task pitching at Chase Field doesn’t exactly seem like the ideal spot to bring that down. I think the Snakes knock him around a bit. In Patrick Corbins case it’s a little worse. He’s also putting up low K’s, but he’s doing with the added problem of a high BB rate. On the year his xFIP sits at 4.29 and much like Samardzija I think he’s going to have some trouble tonight. I could see a 7-5 type game tonight out in the desert.

Indians +155: I can’t understand luck box Marco Estrada laying -165 in this one. I’ve went over his insane BABIP luck many times over the last month or so. Right now Estrada has a BABIP that’s lower than what any pitcher has done in literally 110 years. To which I often get the “well he doesn’t let guys hit the ball hard, so it isn’t lucky” response. That flat out just isn’t true, as his average batted ball exit velocity is right around league average. With Estrada it’s been one of the luckiest things you’ll ever see that so many batted balls find gloves. His xFIP of 4.61 is almost 2 runs higher than his ERA and it’s actually one of the worst xFIP’s in the league. He also only gets 34.8% ground balls which is also one of the worst in the league. If he can keep this amazing luck streak going, so be it, but at +155 with the hottest and maybe best team in the AL I’ll gladly take my chances that order restores itself today.

Twins -124: By now you guys know that I’m not buying on the Rangers and lines like this show you the oddsmakers aren’t either. For the love of god they are +114 dogs against Tyler Duffey and the Twins. What does that tell you about what oddsmakers think of this team? Now I actually do like Duffey and his xFIP of 3.78 is much better than his unlucky 5.59 ERA. His K rate is solid and his BB rate is very low. Despite what the surface stats show, Duffey is actually a respectable pitcher. Chi Chi Gonzalez on the other hand (like most Rangers starters) is absolutely horrid. I know he’s only throw 5 innings this year, but you can go back to his 2015 to fill in the blanks. Since the start of 2015 he’s thrown 72 Innings and has 34 BB to go with 32 K’s. That’s a K/9 of 4.0 and a BB/9 of 4.25. Both of which are about as bad as you’ll get. It also puts in him the unheard category of guys who have more BB’s than K’s. Not surprisingly over that span his xFIP is a putrid 5.26. When a 52-29 team is a dog against a 25-54 team you need to look deeper to see what’s going on. On the surface a line like this won’t make sense to many, but to me it’s perfectly legit. Twins here.

No time for any more write ups today, but I do have a few more plays… here they are

Mariners -143
1st 5: White Sox/Astros Un 4 (-105)
1st 5: Tigers/Rays Un 4.5 (-120)

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