Riding a mini hot streak as we start the new week. Current run of 10-5 (+4.68 Units) in the last 15 plays. That dates back to Friday when I started the site. So far, so good. Will try and keep things going this week.
Mets -104: In Steven Matz’ first start of the season he was absolutely lit up by the Marlins. Due to some weird rotation juggling Matz started that game on 9 days rest and was clearly out of rhythm. In his 4 starts since then he’s been incredible. Over that span he’s gone 28 IP, while allowing only 2 ER, to go with 29 K’s and only 5 BB’s. Matz is a flat out stud and getting him at a price like this is something that won’t happen very often. Scott Kazmir has had a rough start to the season ERA wise, but there are some signs he should get things turned around. This play isn’t about fading Kazmir though, it’s about getting on Matz at what will probably be about as cheap as you can get him all year.
Indians -110: I still think Corey Kluber is a top 10 pitcher in baseball, and chances to get him at -110 don’t come along everyday. Kluber is somehow 11-19 over his last 38 starts despite continuing to put up very nice numbers. This year it’s the same old Kluber, high K’s, low BB’s, and low HR’s. In addition to that he’s raised his ground ball rate to a career high 51.8%. On the other end there are signs Houston starter Mike Fiers will get it going. He’s had an unlucky BABIP and HR rate against him so far this season. His xFIP is nearly 2 full runs lower than his ERA. I’ll admit he’s better than his surface stats make him seem. Much like Matz and the Mets play though, this isn’t about fading the opponent, it’s about getting a stud SP at a nice price.
Rays +116: I’ve been a Felix Hernandez fan his entire career, right now however he’s doing it with smoke and mirrors. His K rate is down, his BB rate is up, his velocity is at a career low, and to be put in simply he just doesn’t have the stuff he once did. This year he’s still managing a 2.21 ERA but that’s a result of a .236 BABIP. His xFIP is nearly double what his ERA is and that’s an indication that tough times are ahead for the king. On the other end we have Matt Moore. Moore was lit up in his last outing so his season numbers now look a bit ugly with that ERA pushing 5. A deeper look however shows Moore has been quite solid this season. His K rate is a shade over 9 K/9 and his BB’s are under control too. His velocity is up and overall he’s sharper than he’s been in years. Right now although the surface stats don’t say it, I’d say Moore is the better SP in this one. I’ll happily take him at plus money.
ML Parlay: Marlins & Cubs (-104): Not much needs to be said one this one as it’s pretty straight forward. Jose Fernandez should beat Wily Peralta at home, and Jon Lester should beat Cesar Vargas at home. That’s why they are both in the -250 range. I’ll admit this one is a bit square, but square plays can make it to the window too. I’ll take my chances that this one will do just that.
1st 5 Innings: Indians/Astros Un 4 (-110): Double dipping on this game. Most of my thoughts here would echo what I mentioned in the Indians write up. Kluber is still a stud and Fiers xFIP, which is nearly 2 runs lower than his ERA, show he’s been more a victim of bad luck than bad pitching. I fully expect this one to be low scoring. Something like 2-0 or 2-1 Indians after 5 seems about right to me.