26
MAY
2016

MLB May 26th

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Rockies +145: Back to the well with Jonathan Gray today. So far this year Gray is the poster boy for bad luck as his xFIP of 2.66 is more than 4 full runs lower than his 6.75 ERA. Gray is suffering from a .376 BABIP and a 51% strand rate, both of which completely unsustainable and very unlucky. What I love about Gray is that 10.97 K/9 rate to go with a solid 2.81 BB/9 rate. Guys with a K rate like Gray’s normally have ERA’s in the 2’s or 3’s so what’s going on with him as far as bad luck is concerned is crazy. I know the Red Sox are a buzzsaw right now, but this is a great price for Gray especially considering who Boston is throwing tonight. Clay Buchholz continues to be an absolute mess and his ERA sits at 5.92. Unlike Gray however his bad ERA isn’t a result of bad luck, it’s just a result of awful pitching. Buchholz’s xFIP of 5.40 shows that poor ERA is well deserved. His problems are all over the place, low K rate, high BB rate, and a very low ground ball percentage. Simply put this guy is a mess right now. I know the Sox are the better team here, and clearly the better offense but at the end of the day +145 and the clearly better SP is enough for me to take a shot in this one. 

1st 5 Innings Marlins/Rays Un 3 (-105): Two stud SP’s with high K rates squaring off in a day game out in Florida today. We all know about Jose Fernandez, but Drew Smyly is no slouch in his own right with a K/9 of 10.13 and a BB/9 of only 2.25. Both of these guys should be just fine today.

1st 5 Innings: Orioles/Astros Un 4.5 (-110): Two young hard throwing righties with electric stuff do battle here. Lance McCullers is fresh off the DL with only two starts under his belt this year, but I think he’s slowly rounding into form. McCullers has a 5.91 ERA but his xFIP of 3.75 shows it’s mostly been bad luck that has that ERA a bit bloated early on. The good sign for McCullers is that per usual his K rate is nice and high at 9.28 K/9, last year in 125.2 IP he put up a similar 9.24 K/9 rate. Opposing him is Orioles flame thrower Kevin Gausman. Gausman doesn’t have a K rate like McCullers as he sits at a good but not great 7.36 K/9, but where he excels is his BB/9 rate of only 1.96. He is a high end guy, big time prospect who now in 2016 is finally showing signs of putting it all together. I think this one stays very low scoring, especially early on.

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