22
MAY
2016

MLB May 22nd

comment : 25

Rays -103: Here we have a matchup of arguably the luckiest and unluckiest pitchers of the season to date. I’ve gone over Chris Archer in every start he’s had since I started this site, you guys know the drill by now. In a nutshell it’s K rate through the roof, BB rate is bad, crazy bad luck with BABIP, strand rate, and HR/FB rate. All of it adds up to an xFIP that’s more than a full run lower than his ERA. Archer is still good, nothing to worry about with him. Jordan Zimmermann on the other hand has been living right on the luck side of things. His .279 BABIP and 81% strand rates are on the luck side, as is being able to put up a 2.45 ERA despite only 6.05 K/9. His xFIP of 4.27 is nearly 2 runs higher than his ERA. J Zimm is a still a good pitcher but he isn’t a guy who has pitched well enough to deserve and ERA this low, and once regression sets in, it won’t be.

Yankees -120: I’ve finally come to my senses and I’m hopping off the Jesse Hahn bandwagon. Frankly the guy just isn’t missing any bats and with a K rate that low he’s a ticking time bomb. His ERA for now is a respectable 3.38 but it’s just a matter of time before that starts rising. Right now he’s working on an 84% strand rate which is very lucky and as I mentioned that K rate of 2.89 K/9 isn’t going to cut it. When guys put the ball in play as much as Hahn is allowing eventually the runs are going to start adding up. On the flip side is Micheal Pineda who is the exact opposite. Pineda is racking up K’s to the tune of a 10.31 K/9 rate. The bad luck for Pineda has come with a .384 BABIP and a 22.2% HR/FB rate both of which are past unlucky and move into borderline absurd. Right now Pineda’s xFIP of 3.60 is 3 full runs lower than his 6.60 ERA. Things are going to start coming together for Pineda, and soon. I’m buying low on him as often as I can until further notice.

Red Sox -116: I’m going to get in there and take my shot against Danny Salazar as I’m banking on the regression train running him over very soon. Salazar is a good pitcher who to his credit piles up a ton of K’s. Right now Salazar has a .227 BABIP, an 85% strand rate, and a 4.7% HR/FB rate. All 3 are incredibly lucky and in no way can last, on top of that he’s sporting a high BB rate of 4.14 BB/9. Don’t get me wrong, Salazar is a big time talent with excellent stuff but this 1.80 ERA isn’t going to last. More realistically it should be somewhere closer to where his xFIP is at 3.39. An offense as loaded as the Red Sox are just the kind of team to knock that ERA closer to where it should be. On the other end is a nicely improving Rick Porcello. Porcello is cruising along with a 8.59 K/9 rate and a nice 2.1 BB/9 rate. You guys know by now that I love high K, low BB guys, because for the most part guys like that stay out of trouble. While Porcello isn’t great his 3.51 ERA is completely legit as his 3.57 xFIP suggests. Everything checks out with slick Rick and I like him to have a nice outing today.

White Sox -130: Many times in these write ups you guys read me talking about guys who have been victims of bad luck. Guys who have xFIP’s far better than their ERA’s and are due to catch some breaks. Yordano Ventura isn’t one of those guys. His ERA is already bad and it actually should be even worse, in his case good luck has kept his ERA at bad instead of horrible. A .252 BABIP against Ventura is the only thing keeping his ERA from flirting with 6. His K rate is way down, his BB rate is the worst in baseball, and his velocity is down. I’m selling on Ventura at reasonable prices any chance I can get, and that’s what I’ve found today. I don’t want this to look like I’m blindly fading Ventura with whoever the other SP happens to be though, Carlos Rodon is a good pitcher. Rodon has fallen victim to a .323 BABIP and a 19% HR/FB rate so his ERA at 4.73 is a bit misleading. I prefer to look at his 9.26 K/9 rate and his 3.67 xFIP to paint a more accurate picture of how solid Rodon actually is. He’s worlds better than Ventura right now, and as a cheap favorite I’ll happily get involved.

1st 5 Innings Rangers/Astros Un 4 (-110):
Cole Hamels has a few peripheral stats that are clearly not going to last, one being terribly lucky and the other terribly unlucky. A 25% HR/FB rate is certainly not going to last, but the counter is that neither will an 87% strand rate. Overall those extremes pretty much balance out and Hamels is left with an xFIP that’s pretty close to his 3.10 ERA. His K rate as usual is very high and for the most part it’s just your same old Hamels. Dallas Keuchel has pretty much only seen bad luck this year. I can’t deny that he’s not in 2015 Cy Young form, but there’s no way around the fact that a .339 BABIP against him and a 68% strand rate are a bit unlucky. Keuchel has an xFIP of 3.85 which is more than a run and a half lower than his 5.43 ERA. Plus we have the home/road aspect of Keuchel who has perhaps as drastic of home/road splits as anyone in the game. This guy is a beast at home and should be just fine in this one.

1st 5 Innings Nationals/Marlins Un 3.5 (-115): Adam Conley has taken a nice step forward this season. What’s led to this improvement is a nice spike in his K rate which now sits at 9.14 K/9. His ERA is at 3.40 and it’s not terribly unlucky as his xFIP sits at a respectable 3.94. I’m not saying Conley is great, but he’s pretty solid and I think he can hold the Nats down a bit today. Max Scherzer will take the mound for the Nats and other than an insanely unlucky 21% HR/FB rate and a little rise in his BB rate, Mad Max is basically the same guy as he’s always been. Scherzer has a 3.17 xFIP which is right in line with what he’s done the last handful of years, and his K rate (granted in only 58 IP) is the highest of his career. This one should be low scoring especially in the early going.

1st 5 Innings D-Backs/Cardinals Un 3.5 (+100): Jaime Garcia has always been a good pitcher, with him it’s always just been a question of if he can ever stay healthy. So far this year he’s managed to keep his health and also improve his pitching too. Garcia is currently working on a 2.86 ERA and 3.13 xFIP that shows it’s completely legit and not lucked into. His K rate is a very nice 9.12 K/9 and he’s getting an outstanding 59.5% ground balls. Lots of K’s and lots of ground balls usually leads to very small amounts of damage, and that’s exactly the recipe Garcia is using this season. In previous write ups I’ve mentioned some of the bad luck Zack Greinke has had this year. The .345 BABIP, the 67% strand rate, the HR/FB rate, these are all things that should start regressing towards his career norms. Greinke has a 3.35 xFIP which is nearly 2 runs lower than his ERA. In short, there’s nothing to worry about here. Greinke is still a top notch pitcher and don’t let an ERA that’s largely a result of bad luck let you think otherwise.

1st 5 Innings Cubs/Giants Un 3.5 (-105): Kyle Hendricks isn’t the name as most of the other guys in that Cubs staff, but he’s quietly putting together a very nice season. Hendricks has the trifecta right now, high K’s, low BB’s and a high ground ball rate. An 8.12 K/9 rate is very solid, a 1.98 BB/9 is very solid, and a 62.2% ground ball rate is exceptional. All of which adds up to an xFIP of 2.98, Hendricks is good, he’s very good. Other than a few more K’s and a few more BB’s Madison Bumgarner is the same guy he’s always been. Across the board most of his numbers line up right there with his career norms. I don’t need to get into too much analysis with a guy like him, he’s one of more well known SP’s in the league and he’s still pretty much as good as he’s always been. Runs should be tough to come by here.

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